A PREFERABLE FUTURE FOR HUMANITY
Thoughts on possible scenarios
This is first September article is a bit atypical being a scholar work I did for a course at UNED. I hope it would be useful for readers interested in the near future and also serve to improve our complex future. Thank you in advance for your attention and interest.The Present
The objective of the species Man, as of any other species, is to survive.
This objective is implicit and has been operational in all human beings since the beginning of our existence. That's why we're here. But strangely enough, and perhaps because of its obviousness, this objective has been taken for granted. And without making it explicit, humans have tried to achieve it in groups, like the rest of the social species.
In our case, we have developed enormous capacities for relationships and cooperation that have allowed us to live in increasingly numerous groups: we have gone from Paleolithic families and clans of 15/20 members to current nation states like China or India of more than 1,400 millions of human beings under the same government.
It seems that our problem in recent years is being oversuccessful since in the year 2,000 the world population was about 6 billion people. And a lot has happened to our species since the year 2,000.
Our habitat has worsened with the problems of global warming and there have been pandemics, earthquakes, floods, fires...
Humans have continued producing wars, inequalities, hunger, poverty, restlessness...
At a slower pace, we have continued to grow a lot in number, going from 6,000 million to more than 8,000 in 20 years, and according to the UN, even with growth rates of less than one, we will reach almost 10 billion by the middle of this century, but without being clear about the path that humanity should follow.
There have been, and still are, many attempts to define improvement actions to be developed by countries and human groups. The UN plans of 2,000 materialized in the eight Millennium Development Goals that in 2,015 became the 17 Goals of the 2,030 Agenda.
On the other hand, world leaders continue to try to reach an agreement to find solutions for the problems in various groups: the G7 before the G8, the G20, the meetings of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the recommendations of the Churches, etc... in which the United Nations and its agencies operate as permanent contact.
Major geopolitical changes are taking place with the great development of China, the Russia-Ukraine war and others. But, although there is more and more talk of a world government (China, the Popes, Davos...) nothing has just materialized. And the lack of an explicit priority life objective, a global ethic and a global governance continues to be a serious problem. Can we find a solution to these issues?
The Future
If we look at initiatives like the Millennium project seems that 2,050 is a good horizon to speculate about the future of the world and in line with the archetypes of futures studies expert Jim Dator, we can envisage four scenarios.
SCENARIO 1: Collapse
Possible
It would mean the total extinction of the species: in the short term due to the use of lethal weapons of mass destruction or in the medium term due to the unstoppable degeneration of human living conditions due to global warming, the emission of methane deposited at the bottom of the oceans, global pandemics, misuse of AI or similar risks.
SCENARIO 2: Business as Usual and Continued Growth
Plausible
There are many forecasting exercises of what can happen between now and 2,050 with the hypothesis of continued growth. To summarize some of them:
Habitat . Increased environmental risks: the global average temperature will rise between 1.5 and 2 degrees with increased drought and forest fires, floods, melting of the polar ice caps and rise in sea levels, collapse of agriculture and fisheries, pandemics, alteration of ecosystems and extinction of species.
Population. According to the UN, population growth rates will continue to decline, but even so the population of 2,050 may reach about 9.7 billion. The serious problem will continue that the poorest areas will be the ones with the highest growth and the ones that will suffer the most from environmental problems.
Geopolitics . According to the consulting firm PWC, in 2,050 the ten largest economies in the world will be: China, India, USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom. There will be an E.7 that will replace the G.7 . There will continue to be partial wars and it is possible that there will be some reduced nuclear war that produces millions of deaths. If there are many, it could lead to an empowerment of the UN, increasing its capacity for influence or global “authority”.
Science and Technology. Great advances will continue in digital, in space exploration, new energies, genetic engineering, AI... that will be applied to solve or alleviate some specific objectives (hunger, environment, inequalities...), and defend the interests of some groups (nations, ideologies, de facto powers…).
Ethics and governance. The UN and the group leaders will continue trying to reduce the causes and consequences of the problems by continuing with the partial objectives, which, even though they are good, do not address the great problem of the survival of the species. Using for this the criteria and means that seem most effective, within the ethical norms defended by the different existing social groups
.
SCENARIO 3: Catastrophic Transformation
Probable
This scenario is probable. And it can be produced by excesses or specific causes in the elements contemplated in the first three groups of the previous point. For example:
Environmental catastrophes that involve the extinction of a few hundred million people or that affect the lives of a few billion: pandemics, floods, droughts.
Unsustainable imbalances in the population of the countries with the poorest, overpopulated and high growth rates: Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania...
The above problems and geopolitical imbalances can lead to wars with nuclear or biological weapons that result in the deaths of billions of people.
In these cases it seems probable that, as happened after the Second Great War, the surviving humans choose to reinforce the UN, now turning it into a World Authority with the power and means to reorder the surviving world. And to try to avoid the repetition of the same or similar catastrophic risks.
SCENARIO 4: New Ethical and Political rules
Preferable
The objective of the species Man, as of any other species, is to survive .
It is about humanity knowing its vital objective of survival and assuming it as a priority goal to achieve. This assumption would lead to consider good/better what is good/better for this basic objective and try to act accordingly.
It is important to highlight that our species has survived and succeeded thanks to its enormous capacities for cooperation and socialization, whose virtues and values I have included in my writings within the concept of broad altruism. (Annex for thinkers section B)
Backcasting of the preferable scenario: new ethical and political rules
I try to see what the world and its governance would be like in 2,050, counting on these ideas being known, broadly accepted, and applied. And how we could realize this vision.
When I wrote my first note on these issues in the year 2,000, I was surprised by how little had been and was said about humanity as a subject, the risks of self-extinction, the rapid globalization of problems, etc. Since then, with advances in genetics, communications and the globalization of problems, the world is increasingly aware that we are a great biological and moral family, and that what happens to some affects everyone.
For this reason, I believe that there is very little left for these ideas and their applications to be seen and assumed by some wise men and leaders, which would lead to the start of the process that I state below with the retrospective path technique (backcasting) to develop a reflection on its convenience, possibility and effects.
2,023 Dissemination of the proposal
Sending this statement, or a similar document, to foreign embassies in Madrid and to leaders, foundations, TT.
Sending messages to philosophers, biologists and other people interested in the survival and future of the species.
Other dissemination actions in magazines, television, advertisements, social networks, relevant blogs, etc…
· (This process would be facilitated if any sufficiently striking event of the possible events mentioned in scenario 3 above occurred).
2,024 Assumption of these ideas by one or several scholars and leaders with the means to present them to other academic groups or leaders, who in turn study and disseminate them until the next step is achieved.
2,025 Creation of a working group at the UN that studies and proposes the common goal of survival, a global ethic, and an Agency to develop these ideas. With the assistance of the G.20, the World Economic Forum, the Churches, a group of scholars, foundations,…
2,028 The working group presents a proposal on “A World Constitution”. And the objectives, structure and functions of a world agency for the development of ideas and their applications.
2,029 Management of the proposal at the different interested levels.
2,030 Signature of the Constitution of the Earth by the member countries and creation of the Agency for the Survival of Humanity with the capacity to study and recommend global actions that are decided by a new Permanent Executive Commission of the UN, and are executed by a General Directorate executive.
A World Manifesto approved by a majority of the UN is established. The inventory is carried out and the main actions in progress are studied and confirmed or reviewed: Agenda 2030, NGO plans , etc. And the most urgent problems of wars, famines, existential risks. And the laws and regulations of countries and other entities that may most affect the survival and well-being of the species.
You can see in Present and human future the possible applications of the new ethics and others. Given its importance and its difficulty of implementation, the inventory and measures on existential risks and population control should be prioritized through the concept of responsible parenthood, which is an idea accepted by the religions of the Book, critical institutions with which to count for the public implementation of population policies.
2,033 The Agency is fully operational. The good deeds in progress continue and new ones aimed at mitigating catastrophic risks, wars, treatment of the marginalized, implanting the ethic of responsible parenthood, fostering awareness of fraternal humanity, the revision of norms and laws, the use of of social and genetic engineering, the review of economic and social policies, human ecology...
2,050 If we have acted with the survival of the species as the objective and broad altruism as a priority, in 2050:
Existential risks and strategies to alleviate possible catastrophes in the most sensitive points of the planet should be foreseen.
Established public policies for responsible parenthood in all countries that serve as a complement to those implicit in the 2030 Agenda. If they are implemented in 2030, the population in 2050 should be between 7000 and 8000 million.
States and nations could continue as they currently do, but under the rules of the World Constitution and Manifesto, whose basic objective is the survival of the species and, as a priority, cooperation, and broad altruism.
The idea of fraternal humanity, the new ethics and the structure for world governance would be consolidated.
The development of sciences and techniques would have helped the development of these ideas. At the same time that its use would also be subject to universal ethics whose foundation is the basic objective of survival with broad altruism as a priority means.
It seems clear that some world authority is necessary. And it is very probable that, if it is not done the good way with scenario 4, it will be done the hard way with 3. Or there will be a collapse since scenario 2 is unsustainable over time.
Conclusion
The objective of the species Man, as of any other species, is to survive and understanding it is the key to changing our current image of the future and directing our actions towards this priority purpose. Attempting this objective supposes, at the same time, improving the physical and moral well-being of humans since, as Darwin said: "a content and happy tribe prospers more than an unfortunate and miserable one".
NOTE: Work done in the context of the postgraduate course of Future Studies at UNED
