Should we reduce the global population?
On Demography and Sustainability
Today, July 11, World Population Day is celebrated.
The number of human beings and their arrangement and circumstances is the issue that most affects the survival, well-being and governance of our humanity and its groups. And yet it is a taboo or treated with euphemisms by secular and religious leaders, both in their manifestations and in the projects and programs that are proposed.
It is a very complex issue because it affects sexual morality, family, abortion, euthanasia, feminism, sexual identities, the care or destruction of our habitat, etc…Like most people, I have my own opinion and I also have solutions for all these problems, but perhaps they are not the right ones and also I do not have the capacity to apply them. For this reason I am going to try to enunciate some ideas, figures and proposals on the subject and I leave them for everyone to think about.
Current situation and perspectives
In 1940, one year before my birth, the world had about 2,000 million inhabitants, in 1975 about 4,000 and in 2023 we have passed 8,000. And that with decreasing growth rates: from 2.1 in 1963 to the current 0.9. The fertility rate is declining in many countries and the UN has lowered its forecasts but, even so, it expects about 9.7 billion in 2050 and a peak of 10,400 in 2080.
In point 5 of my note on Human present and future Ig ave estimated that global population could be between 2,000 and 4,000 million. According to Population Matters the optimal sustainable world population can be between 2,700 and 5,150 million. These figures assume having an elemental respect for the habitat and a minimum of well-being for existing people at any given time.
Consequences of population growth
A Spanish utility points out some of the main bad effects of excess population: it increases climate change, decreases food security, affects the loss of biodiversity and, according to the World Wide Fund for Nature, the current overexploitation of natural resources generates a huge deficit since every year 20% more than can be generated is consumed and this percentage does not stop growing.
And behind these concepts are the terrible figures of poverty. Of the 8 billion people, some 900 million are poor and undernourished. Many of them from highly populated countries that still have high birth rates, especially in their most needy groups. I put approximate figures for some developing countries.
(Various sources. 2023 estimates)
According to Worldmeter, in Spain, the population in 1973 was 35 million and in 2023 about 48.2. The birth rate in 2021 was from 7,12 . There are no data on malnourished. Possibly this concept is not measured in the richest countries.
Recent history
As we have seen, great growth has occurred since the 1940s, with great inequalities between rich and poor countries. And we know that the main cause of growth has been the universal and perennial tendency of all species to reproduce. In the case of Man, the enormous advances in the health sciences led to a reduction in the premature deaths of children, while maintaining reproductive rates, while increasing life expectancy.
In the most developed countries, with the highest welfare, birth rates soon fell, but in the poorest countries and with cultural and religious customs prone to having many children, they continued with their sexual and cultural habits and the enormous growth that we know was produced. .There are still rates of more than 4 children per woman in poor countries: 5.06 in Nigeria, 4.59 in Tanzania, 4.36 in Uganda. And, on the contrary, they are close to the replacement rate of 2.1 or less in many developed countries: among them Spain or Italy that are at 1.29 children and 1.24 per woman according to estimates by The World Factbook in the eighth and sixth positions from the bottom respectively.
In the last 50 years, some initiatives aimed at reducing growth rates have been of great importance. I cite the two best known:
Te confidential report NSSM 200 on the growth of the world population was completed. Since then its recommendations have been assumed and practiced by the US and the UN.
China's one-child policy applied from 1982 to 2015. Currently, they no longer have a cap and the fertility rate is 1.19, below the replacement rate of 2.1. It doesn't look like it will go up as the Chinese are richer and have adopted the techniques and habits of separating sex and reproduction.
The application of the so-called Kissinger report was, and is, very successful in developed countries and little in poor ones. It is based on the use of highly elaborated social engineering that has made sex separate from reproduction in the affected cultures, modifying the structure of the family, incorporating women into external work, exchanging material well-being for children, promoting abortion and the multiplicity of sexual orientations…
The religions of the Book oppose various aspects of these policies and their methods. For reproductive purposes, Islam still prefers many children, Catholics are prohibited from using artificial contraceptive methods, although those from rich countries skip this mandate. And Orthodox Jews surely do not like this policy, which will have influenced the lack of transparency in the system.
What can we do?
I think this situation demands the following:
World leaders, secular and religious, must explicitly assume, that the “entity “to be considered is the entire Humanity, and that the priority objective we should try to achieve is to avoid extinction, in the short and medium term .
We should have children who can be raised with dignity until they have the ability to live on their ow. And it seems convenient that the ones who decide when they want and can be mothers be the women. There are enough means to make men and women all over the world know how to apply this idea without having physical or moral problems. Both to reduce or to increase the children that they can raise with an adequate well-being of mothers and children.
The concept is applicable to collectives and countries. Each country must feel and be responsible for maintaining its current and new citizens with dignity. Alone or with sufficient aid from other countries, or through alliances. This idea can be applied right now, but it would be much easier if there was a world authority that would direct the process, advising and helping those who are most in need .
The entire process can and should be done by applying the other biological law already assumed by our species of prioritizing cooperation, or broad altruism, as the main element in relationships at all levels: personal, groupal, and global.
The objective of the survival of our species/humanity assumes that all people, countries, world organizations, religions, ideologies, etc..., have the vital obligation to act accordingly. And that, to comply with this obligation is what we have dignity, freedom and rights as human beings.
In general we are trying to fulfill this obligation intuitively, unconsciously. Now it is urgent that all of us, and especially our wise men and leaders, have this priority duty explicit.
Note. To expand these ideas you can read the note on Present and future on my website Humans , especially points 5 and 6 of the applications on population, family and sexuality.